December 12th 2009

St. Mary’s Gaels at Oregon Ducks (1.0)

With not much size inside the paint this year for Oregon, they rely heavily on their strong three-point shooting by guards Porter and Humphrey. With both either side lined or barely playing at all last game due to injuries the Ducks offense seem to have no spark and no chance in keeping pace with Missouri. Also there is the question of whether senior; Joevan Catron will play due to an aching back that keeps him out of the line up last week. If all three players do not play, we can end right here and give the win to the Gaels. Although let’s make it interesting a say they all play, how will St. Mary’s match up to a heavy Ducks team? They seem to look very strong in the paint with the “Twin Towers” of Allen and Samhan, both standing tall at 6’11”. This will create problems on the defensive end for Oregon who will have no one to match up on either of these two inside and create no low post threat for Oregon when they are on offense with those two clogging up the paint area. Oregon’s only chance is if Porter and Humphrey shot lights out from behind the arc. And let’s not forget McConnell for the Gael can get hot as well, so it’s hard to go against a team with that much size and an excellent outside shooter in this one.

PICK: Gaels +1.5

Oregon State Beavers at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-6.5)

These two meet last year with the Beavers prevailing 64-63, but both teams are very different with few familiar faces. The Cornhuskers have only 1 returning starters, while the Beavers have 3. But of these three only one is a starter this season which leads me to believe that their recruits and transfers have made this a better squad this time around. Schaftenaar and Haynes, who no longer, start combined for 20 of the 64 point in last year’s meeting and will provide plenty of bench scoring. During the game last year The Beaver’s shot under 40% from the field and had an astonishing 24 turnover while Nebraska seems to take care of the ball very well and had only 11 mistakes. This season Nebraska has been gliding along with a 6-2 record and may think they have already beaten a solid Pac-10 team in USC 51-48, unfortunately this is not a normal USC squad and will not finish near the top in the standings this year. The Beaver’s are a team going unnoticed with wins over Colorado and George Washington...and even more impression a 64-60 lose at Texas Tech. Regardless of the outcome here, this team will probably remain under the radar, so watch them this year as they should cover lots of spreads as road dogs.

PICK: Beaver’s +6.5

Purdue Boilermakers at Alabama Crimson Tide (4.5)

So Alabama has impressed many people this year with an impressive 6-2, including wins over Michigan, Baylor, and Providence. All while all that is impressive they have yet to face anyone like Purdue and the defensive intensity that they bring. Purdue is off to an 8-0 start is no surprise but was not a given considered they played the likes of Wake Forest, Tennessee, and San Diego State. There is not much need to take about the battle on the glass because with all the poor shots the boilermakers will force Alabama to take, they will surely win this statistic. As far as match ups go Purdue seems to have a huge edge there as well. Johnson will be far too much for Green to handle down low; however, with Knox also at 6’9” coming off the bench they will essentially have 10 fouls to use. Here’s Alabama’s next problem, who will guard Robbie Hummel? How will either guard be able to shake who I believe could be the best defensive player in the country in Chris Kramer? And is there anyone on this Crimson Tide squad who is quick enough to stop E’Twaun Moore. All of these questions and more lead me to believe that the coaching staff of Alabama will realize they cannot match up well in man to man and will be forced to play a zone. Unfortunately, packing it in may not show the problem, as Purdue has shot 32.9 % from behind the arc in their previous 8 games. This is usually a disciplined Purdue team with all 5 starters returning from last season and their experience should be able to keep the turnovers down and come out of the Coleman Coliseum with a comfortable victory.

PICK: Boilermakers -5.5